It was bound to be close, so long as Romney put on his moderate mask. So assume Obama holds the West Coast, the East coast (toss out New Hampshire) and the usually Democratic Great Lakes Midwest. Loses the South completely—Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. Keeps New Mexico, but loses Colorado and Nevada out West. Barely—just barely—wins Iowa and Ohio. He’s left with 271 electoral votes. Because that’s how Obama rolls in these situations.